Migration predictions

Dedicated exclusively to field herping.

Moderator: Scott Waters

Post Reply
Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » January 26th, 2015, 5:41 am

I know it's a little early, but let's see who can guess the date of the prediction in Southern Michigan/Northern Indiana+Ohio. I had two straight dreams that I was finding Eastern Tigers (which would be a new species for me, how embarrassing) somewhere in Jackson or Washtenaw County. For some odd reason, in both dreams, I looked at a calendar, and, in both dreams, the date was March 28, 2015. I was only finding tigers and blue-spots in that dream though, so the main Spotted migration would probably still happen in early April, though I'm really just after Tigers this spring. All wishful thinking about a warm February welcome (and all realistic predictions)!

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » January 26th, 2015, 5:42 am

The word "prediction" should be "migration" in the first sentence. the date of your prediction would be pretty easy to guess!

User avatar
Trey
Posts: 158
Joined: October 1st, 2010, 8:40 pm
Location: NE OHIO

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Trey » February 24th, 2015, 11:06 am

I'll play, for the last several years, I have gone out on either the third or the fourth of april and found a large number of animals on roads and in pools. With our COLD temperatures and the long range forecast not looking great, I will guess the majority of animals will move the first weekend of April, which just happens to be April 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » February 25th, 2015, 8:25 am

I've still got March 28, which doesn't look like a bad period on the long-range cast, but it's so uncertain more than a week out.

User avatar
pjfishpa
Posts: 123
Joined: June 2nd, 2013, 5:51 am
Location: NW Ohio / SE Michigan

Re: Migration predictions

Post by pjfishpa » February 25th, 2015, 7:16 pm

I'll bite too. The first good rain after the ice and snow melt with nighttime air temps in the 50's. For Detroit/Toledo/Ann Arbor I am guessing April Fool's Day. That being said I hope to be looking a week or two before that in central OH. Just always seems to be a few weeks ahead of things down there!

User avatar
Trey
Posts: 158
Joined: October 1st, 2010, 8:40 pm
Location: NE OHIO

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Trey » February 25th, 2015, 8:20 pm

pjfishpa wrote:I'll bite too. The first good rain after the ice and snow melt with nighttime air temps in the 50's. For Detroit/Toledo/Ann Arbor I am guessing April Fool's Day. That being said I hope to be looking a week or two before that in central OH. Just always seems to be a few weeks ahead of things down there!

Central Ohio should definitely be a bit earlier than up by me (Cleveland area). I would say two weeks sounds about right!

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » March 2nd, 2015, 8:38 am

I've got the Tigers and Blue-spots moving on the 28th and the sluggard Blue-spots and Spotted sallies moving on April 7th.

User avatar
jason folt
Posts: 262
Joined: June 7th, 2010, 8:20 am
Location: Midwest
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by jason folt » March 2nd, 2015, 5:53 pm

So close yet so far away. Traditionally April is late, but this winter seems to be shaping up similar to last...

J

User avatar
Nick Scobel
Posts: 232
Joined: June 10th, 2010, 8:35 pm
Location: Southeast Michigan
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Nick Scobel » March 21st, 2015, 11:24 pm

^^Yep.

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » March 22nd, 2015, 8:14 am

Scobel's back!! Long time, no chat, Mr. Scobel. We were talking a little last December on this forum about trying to hit the last five Michigan counties on the herpatlas (Bay, Arenac, Ionia, Mississaukee, and Roscommon) and got some people who said they'd be happy to fill in some of those counties come spring. There was also talk that you might have records for a couple of those counties, just anything with a picture, even if it's a Northern Green Frog or something. Any help on that front would be appreciated (I got Iosco, Saginaw, Gratiot, and Genesee Counties last year). I've also got kind of a crackpot theory that I cooked up over the long winter if you want to give me a critique on it, I'd be happy to private message it over. I'll be trying to hit some Tigers down in the Washtenaw/Jackson/Livingston area in the next couple weeks, and any company would be most welcome. Happy herping in the new year!
Jefferson

User avatar
Trey
Posts: 158
Joined: October 1st, 2010, 8:40 pm
Location: NE OHIO

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Trey » March 25th, 2015, 11:19 am

Looks like the move may happen tonight in my area. I'll be out at the pools looking.

User avatar
Nick Scobel
Posts: 232
Joined: June 10th, 2010, 8:35 pm
Location: Southeast Michigan
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Nick Scobel » March 26th, 2015, 9:52 am

Some early risers were out last night in southern Michigan. Pools were mostly thawed, small numbers of lats and some tigers were in pools. Lats were also active on roads, despite it being dry after dark. If we get rain next week, things should be really good.

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » March 27th, 2015, 7:02 am

Considering that, the 29th (Sunday) looks like peaches and cream.

User avatar
pjfishpa
Posts: 123
Joined: June 2nd, 2013, 5:51 am
Location: NW Ohio / SE Michigan

Re: Migration predictions

Post by pjfishpa » March 30th, 2015, 2:21 pm

Will be checking a pool in the AM before work. Thinking they will be moving tonite here or for sure Thursday night. Spring has finally arrived.

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » March 31st, 2015, 4:27 am

Yeah, Thursday looks really, really good. After days of wondering whether 37 or 38 and drizzle is good enough, low 50s and a downpour is music to my ears for that Thursday forecast. If the weathermen are wrong on Thursday, though, Monday and Tuesday nights next week look promising as well.

User avatar
jason folt
Posts: 262
Joined: June 7th, 2010, 8:20 am
Location: Midwest
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by jason folt » March 31st, 2015, 9:18 am

Animals were moving last night. If you keep waiting for the perfect night you might miss it.

J

Jefferson
Posts: 143
Joined: March 2nd, 2014, 6:50 am
Location: Southwest Missouri
Contact:

Re: Migration predictions

Post by Jefferson » March 31st, 2015, 9:53 am

Do you think I'll still be able to see Tigers in pools and on roads Thursday? I'm not holding back on Thursday no matter what because of the precipitation/warmth combination, but do you think they'll still be there?

Post Reply