Climate change revisited

Extended discussion forum.

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Kelly Mc
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Kelly Mc »

I shouldnt have commented, but I dont delete my posting mishaps, unless it is requested.

You do irritate me though, because it seems you dont really care at all about the topics you post in, you only wish to start trouble.

It isnt the Trouble, its the not really caring part.

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Kelly Mc
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Kelly Mc »

Ive met you Ernie. You were all snake love and fire.

They dont teach reptile keeping in college.

Perhaps you came to see them as a way to make money. That was a mistake.

If your bitterness has surpassed your wonder that is a sad weakness on your part. Dont be jealous of people who still experience awe, or found another way to work and make a living through the vibrant curiosity that you seem to not value any more.

You dont give a damn about climate change politics. Please stop urinating here.

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WSTREPS
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by WSTREPS »

Dr. Judith Curry should write an autobiographical book. She could call it. THE LAST SCIENTIST.
Image

A wise man once said, people are really stupid and a lot of them are dumber than that.

This funny and plain-spoken truth. Automatically brings to mind the Kool-Aid drinkers armed with their phony outrage and deep concerns. Sociological lemmings always at the ready to rally around whatever IMPORTANT issue is making the BIG headlines. To these mass consumers of glittering generalities. Science is a TV game show.The winner to be determined via a rigged popularity contest. A truth sourced from a colorful bow tie wearing Disney character. All the education needed for an informed opinion can be had by reading whatever headline is on the front page of USA today. The obtuse mentality that It must be true, it was on CNN. It's time for everyone to put on their tin foil hats !!!

ERNIE EISON

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Kelly Mc
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Kelly Mc »

Intelligent promotion of ones position doesn't lean on trite one liners or unconscious admissions of resentment.

Being intelligent in promoting a view means being effective.

When you read your posts, do you feel that is accomplished?

Do you want to look like you have a "problem" or do you want to be effective?

It is rarely possible to do both.

Jimi
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Joined: December 3rd, 2010, 12:06 pm

Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

Here's a slight improvement:
This rant from Ernie brings to mind the Kool-Aid drinkers armed with their phony outrage and deep concerns. The sociological lemmings always at the ready to rally around whatever IMPORTANT issue is making the BIG headlines. To these mass consumers of corporate and foreign misinformation, science is a TV game show, the winner to be determined via a rigged popularity contest. A truth sourced from a colorful bow tie wearing Disney character. All the education needed for an informed opinion can be had by watching Fox and Friends. The obtuse mentality that It must be true, it was on Fox. It's time for everyone to put on their tin foil hats !!!

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El Garia
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by El Garia »

Why do you let Ernie live in your heads? :lol:

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

Horseshit doesn't get the last word.

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

This may interest some:

https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/

This was a project in which climate scientists were asked a rather unusual question - "How do you feel about climate change?"

A description:
Climate change is a complex and intimidating threat. You can't see it when you look out your bedroom window. Its impacts are often not immediately noticeable, nor are the benefits of acting against it.

Luckily there are a large group of passionate individuals who have dedicated their lives to studying climate change. These people write complex research papers, unpacking every aspect of climate change, analysing it thoroughly and clinically. They understand the numbers, the facts and the figures. They know what is causing it, what the impacts will be and how we can minimise these impacts.

But they're not robots. These scientists are mothers, fathers, grandparents, daughters. They are real people. And they're concerned.

Here's one scientist's response to the question:
I’m angry because the lack of effective action on climate change, despite the wealth not only of scientific information but also of solutions to reduce emissions, has now created a climate emergency.

The students are right. Their future is now being threatening by the greed of the wealthy fossil fuel elite, the lies of the Murdoch press, and the weakness of our political leaders. These people have no right to destroy my daughter’s future and that of her generation.

Richard F. Hoyer
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Richard F. Hoyer »

With respect to the issue of climate change / global warming, I have previously mentioned it is best to let the scientific research continue to explore these issues as well as letting the weather tell its own story in coming years.

Below is a message received from son Ryan in Utah. It had four links but I have included just on link. In reading the information in that one link, I came across a box with the following message:
“Another Climate Scientist with Impeccable Credentials Breaks Ranks: “Our models are Mickey-Mouse Mockeries of the Real World””

I suggest you access that link. You can either click on that box to access that narrative or enter the above in a web search to access the narrative.

Richard F. Hoyer (Corvallis, Oregon)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I had begun to pull together some links a few weeks back when I brought up the topic of grand solar minimum. I realize I won't be getting back to this any time soon, so will forward the links I found if you are interested.

https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts- ... lications/

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

This is probably the second-most used climate change denier myth.
the topic of grand solar minimum

The source for the following pasted material:

https://skepticalscience.com/solar-acti ... vanced.htm

Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions

What the science says...

In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions.


Climate Myth...

It's the sun




As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."

In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008).

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

As for this:
it is best to let the scientific research continue to explore these issues as well as letting the weather tell its own story in coming years


Well, the weather is indeed telling its own story. Always has, always will. Hey,
  • the Atlantic hurricane season is now off to an earlier-than-usual start for the 6th straight year, and
  • the decade 2010-2019 was the hottest decade on record, and
  • in 2010, the same was true for the the decade 2000-2009, and
  • the last five years have been the five hottest years on record, and
  • record high temps are exceeding record low temps by at least a 2:1 margin, and
  • the oceans are 30% more acidic than they were at the dawn of the Industrial Age and by 2100 are likely to be 100% more (twice as) acidic...


it just goes on. Really, it does.

But don't believe your own damn lyin' eyes, just trust the alternative-facts guys.


Why bother having scientific research? I mean, if your answer to the question "what do you do with credible information of an urgent nature" is "oh - not a damned thing" - well then. I'm not sure what to offer or prescribe. You won't get my complicity or acquiescence.

Horseshit doesn't get the last word.

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jonathan
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by jonathan »

Richard F. Hoyer wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 11:16 am
With respect to the issue of climate change / global warming, I have previously mentioned it is best to let the scientific research continue to explore these issues as well as letting the weather tell its own story in coming years.

Below is a message received from son Ryan in Utah. It had four links but I have included just on link. In reading the information in that one link, I came across a box with the following message:
“Another Climate Scientist with Impeccable Credentials Breaks Ranks: “Our models are Mickey-Mouse Mockeries of the Real World””
I looked it up, and it appears to be a sensationalist title - the scientist in the article has been writing papers attacking climate change models since at least 1994, and back in 2013 predicted that we would hit a cooling cycle starting in 2015.

That prediction was obviously wildly off.


The topic of his book appears to generally be that climate is enormously difficult to predict, with numerous factors, and thus attempts to model the climate must use a great deal of simplification. From what I read it doesn't seem to argue "the Earth is not warming" so much as it argues "Yes, the Earth is warming, but we're unsure how much more it will warm or how unprecedented this is." Which probably is at least a somewhat defensible position.

At that point though, Richard, it's tough for me to see what your endgame is. You can look at mere land use statistics and see that humans have taken over far too much of the land surface of the Earth. It's obvious that we've cut/burned down too many forests, produce too much pollution. We're in the middle of a biodiversity crisis that you don't have to believe anything about global warming to see clearly with your own eyes. Not to mention that the way our oil dependence funds middle eastern wars, economic instability, and corrupt states like Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia, etc....Stopping deforestation, reducing meat intake, pulling away from fossil fuels, reducing overconsumption in general...how are those bad things?

How are they not extremely necessary right now whether or not you want to deal with the obvious warming of the Earth that's accompanying them?

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

More from the weather - "warming has increased the likelihood of a hurricane developing into a major one of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds greater than 110 miles an hour, by about 8 percent a decade."

So since 1979 the odds of a hurricane going major have increased about 26%. Nice one, humanity. Well played.
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020 ... 1920849117
Abstract

Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982–2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.
Significance

Tropical cyclones (TCs), and particularly major TCs, pose substantial risk to many regions around the globe. Identifying changes in this risk and determining causal factors for the changes is a critical element for taking steps toward adaptation. Theory and numerical models consistently link increasing TC intensity to a warming world, but confidence in this link is compromised by difficulties in detecting significant intensity trends in observations. These difficulties are largely caused by known heterogeneities in the past instrumental records of TCs. Here we address and reduce these heterogeneities and identify significant global trends in TC intensity over the past four decades. The results should serve to increase confidence in projections of increased TC intensity under continued warming.

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

From what I read it doesn't seem to argue "the Earth is not warming" so much as it argues "Yes, the Earth is warming, but we're unsure how much more it will warm or how unprecedented this is."
That's from the standard deniers' playbook. The next play is "well, we still don't know why it's warming so we'd better not do anything about it". It's like when seatbelts killed people by making it harder to escape a wrecked car, and smoking cigarettes didn't hurt people, but actually they were good for weight loss (hey, so is cancer, right?)

Horseshit.

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WSTREPS
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by WSTREPS »

Horseshit doesn't get the last word.
That's right, it shouldn't. And that's why the last word belongs to Professor Judith Curry.


It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. — Upton Sinclair.

ERNIE EISON

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

As for so-called ClimateGate, try FactCheck https://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/
Summary

In late November 2009, more than 1,000 e-mails between scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the U.K.’s University of East Anglia were stolen and made public by an as-yet-unnamed hacker. Climate skeptics are claiming that they show scientific misconduct that amounts to the complete fabrication of man-made global warming. We find that to be unfounded:

- The messages, which span 13 years, show a few scientists in a bad light, being rude or dismissive. An investigation is underway, but there’s still plenty of evidence that the earth is getting warmer and that humans are largely responsible.
- Some critics say the e-mails negate the conclusions of a 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the IPCC report relied on data from a large number of sources, of which CRU was only one.
- E-mails being cited as “smoking guns” have been misrepresented. For instance, one e-mail that refers to “hiding the decline” isn’t talking about a decline in actual temperatures as measured at weather stations. These have continued to rise, and 2009 may turn out to be the fifth warmest year ever recorded. The “decline” actually refers to a problem with recent data from tree rings.


Well there you go again, trying to let horseshit have the last word.
The question, What happened to Tucker Carlson? is worth answering. If we can figure out how an intelligent writer and conservative can go from writing National Magazine Award–nominated articles and being hailed by some of the best editors in the business, to shouting about immigrants on Fox News, perhaps we can understand what is happening to this country, or at least to journalism, in 2018.
Source - Columbia Journalism Review: https://www.cjr.org/the_profile/tucker-carlson.php


Horseshit doesn't get the last word.

That's right, it shouldn't. And that's why the last word belongs to ....


The last word belongs to Richard West. He's describing Tucker Carlson, but also inadvertently describing our least-favorite narcissist here at FHF.
“It’s quite a remarkable tactic,” West explains, “because you don’t give people an opportunity to digest … I do believe he’s a conversational narcissist. He hijacks the conversation and contorts it to his own value structure.”

AEthelred
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Location: North Adams,Massachusetts

Re: Climate change revisited

Post by AEthelred »

88 fahrenheit in the Berkshire hills of Massachusetts yesterday in may,it must have topped 90 in Boston.There is something going on with the climate,that's for sure.

Jimi
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

Well, a hot day is just a hot day, a hot night is just a hot night. But stack up enough of them over a few decades, and hell yeah something not funny is going on. In the 10 full years since the 2009 "climategate" full-on horseshit mentioned by what's his nuts - and recall, at that time, 2009 was the hottest year on record - we've had about 8 or 9 more hottest years on record.

Just let that sink in. And don't fall in with the horseshit-pitching, alternative-facts guys.

Richard F. Hoyer
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Richard F. Hoyer »

Jonathon,
I my computer has been ‘misbehaving’. Scott Walters made some heroic efforts in my behalf but for unknown reasons, I was unable to post a response on the forum. So I took the computer in to have it serviced and now found it allows me to post a response.

I agree with a good deal of what you mentioned in your last paragraph. And of course, the primary issue is that of continued growth in the human population. For a number of years, I contributed to an organization trying to deal with that issue.

You mention “end game”. Similar to a number of threads I have started on this forum, my underlying goal has been to try and urge individuals to keep an open mind, examine all sides of issues, and think critically, And by example, I have tied to show how to disagree without being disagreeable. At this juncture and in this particular thread, it appears I have failed.

I had not revisited the ‘climate’ issue until my son Ryan in Utah recently sent me links dealing with the Solar Minimum. In making more searches on the web a couple of weeks ago, I found two interesting links which I sent to Ryan and have copied below which can be entered in a web search.

"The List" - Scientists who Publicly Disagree with the Current
NOAA Satellite records second largest 2-month temperature

In the first link, I suggest scrolling down and reading the narrative under the heading of ‘Speaking Out’. In the second WUWT link, if you click on ‘Climategate’ along the top bar, that in turn leads to some interesting reads. I urge everyone that reads this threat to educate yourselves on both sides of the climate change / global warming issue.

Richard F. Hoyer

Jimi
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Joined: December 3rd, 2010, 12:06 pm

Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

my underlying goal has been to try and urge individuals to keep an open mind
In an earlier era of "the culture wars", righties used to say of lefties "Oh those poor dummies - look, their minds are so open their brains fell out". My my, how the wheel turns in ironic ways. Or maybe it was just projection all along.


examine all sides of issues, and think critically
There is Absolutely Nothing wrong with aspiring for that. Trying it, even. Doesn't mean it always works for someone. Gotta walk the walk, not just talk the talk.


I found two interesting links which I sent to Ryan and have copied below which can be entered in a web search.
Richard, I have repeatedly mentioned, with constructive kindness, that 1) your "links" aren't functioning as such - the only way we can use them is as search terms in a search engine, and 2) how to actually insert a link here (look in the toolbar, to the right of "bold", "italics", etc, for the icon that resembles a pair of dice, just left of the icon that resembles a drop of water).

As a result of using your two search terms, I got these results:
1) "The List" - Scientists who Publicly Disagree with the Current
https://skepticalscience.com/global-war ... ediate.htm

2) NOAA Satellite records second largest 2-month temperature
Image

which is located in the NOAA report here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202004

Said report includes the following unambiguous statement, which is highly suggested by the graphic, anyway:
The April 2020 globally averaged land and ocean surface temperature departure from average was the second highest for the month in the 141-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880.


In the search engine results, besides finding the links I provided, I also found what I think you meant to link, what you sent your son. Unfortunately, the stuff contained at those links is total horseshit. Although, I was seriously amused to see at WUPT that I could also read about toenail fungus, erectile dysfunction, and Clint Eastwood. Yeah, I wanna join you guys, and go there - not to NASA, NOAA, any country's Academy of Science, etc for the authoritative information on climate change.


There are no "two sides" to "is climate change happening", "why is it happening", or "what do we need to do right now about it".

Unless you consider one side to be the scientifically-derived, consensually-agreed, far and away most parsimonious explanation for what's causing what we are actually experincing, and the other side to be the tinfoil hat conspiracy theory steaming pile of horseshit.

I urge everyone that reads this threat to educate yourselves on both sides of the climate change / global warming issue.
So why don't you go to the links I provided, and try to educate yourself?

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WSTREPS
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by WSTREPS »

**********************************************************************


D'tUknowUrAnidiot.....Horseshit doesn't get the last word.

Dr. Tim Ball Defeats Michael ‘Hockey Stick’ Mann’s Climate Lawsuit

BC Supreme Court ruling that Mann did commit data fraud. Many hundreds of peer-reviewed papers cite Mann’s work, which is now effectively junked.

Dr. Tim Ball . Bachelor's degree with honors in geography from the University of Winnipeg, M.A. from the University of Manitoba and a PhD in Geography with a specific focus on historical climatology from Queen Mary University of London England.

Dr. Ball. Please, if you would,


Ernie Eison

Bonus; D'tUknowUrAnidiot

Further proof you are, if you think Tucker Carlson had any impact on Professor Judith A. Curry's concise testimony of the wrong doing found in climate science. Professor Curry. Please, if you would,



Jimi
Posts: 1905
Joined: December 3rd, 2010, 12:06 pm

Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Jimi »

Same old story, same old song and dance. You're a one-trick tired old nag, but still a seriously dependable horseshit producer. Good for you, you're just so amazingly full of shit!!!

Source: https://skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm
What evidence is there for the hockey stick?

What the science says...

Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000 years and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.

(what the) Climate Myth (says)...

Hockey stick is broken

“In 2003 Professor McKitrick teamed with a Canadian engineer, Steve McIntyre, in attempting to replicate the chart and finally debunked it as statistical nonsense. They revealed how the chart was derived from "collation errors, unjustified truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, incorrect principal component calculations, geographical mislocations and other serious defects" -- substantially affecting the temperature index.” (John McLaughlin)

The "hockey stick" describes a reconstruction of past temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree-rings, ice cores, coral and other records that act as proxies for temperature (Mann 1999). The reconstruction found that global temperature gradually cooled over the last 1000 years with a sharp upturn in the 20th Century. The principal result from the hockey stick is that global temperatures over the last few decades are the warmest in the last 1000 years.

...

A critique of the hockey stick was published in 2004 (McIntyre 2004), claiming the hockey stick shape was the inevitable result of the statistical method used (principal components analysis). They also claimed temperatures over the 15th Century were derived from one bristlecone pine proxy record. They concluded that the hockey stick shape was not statistically significant.

An independent assessment of Mann's hockey stick was conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Wahl 2007). They reconstructed temperatures employing a variety of statistical techniques (with and without principal components analysis). Their results found slightly different temperatures in the early 15th Century. However, they confirmed the principal results of the original hockey stick - that the warming trend and temperatures over the last few decades are unprecedented over at least the last 600 years.

...

While many continue to fixate on Mann's early work on proxy records, the science of paleoclimatology has moved on. Since 1999, there have been many independent reconstructions of past temperatures, using a variety of proxy data and a number of different methodologies. All find the same result - that the last few decades are the hottest in the last 500 to 2000 years (depending on how far back the reconstruction goes).

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Kelly Mc
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by Kelly Mc »

We have seen the other side served by a crown capped comix bully, and the respectable OG and its not strong no matter how stubborn the resolve. Or attention-starved. It isnt strong.

Jimi thanks for not letting the HS have the last word. Its important. Mature choices and changes in behavior need to be made.

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WSTREPS
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Re: Climate change revisited

Post by WSTREPS »

*****************************

Facts > Jimi HS

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer

Meteorologist, a principal research scientist at the University of Huntsville , U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.

This talk involves real education. The most honest breakdown of what is actually driving the scientific community as it applies today. Not forum banter, facts .

Dr. Roy Spencer. Please, if you would,



Ernie Eison

BONUS; Facts > Jimi HS

Climate scientist Michael Mann tells whopper at congressional science hearing


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